The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) publishes a formal rulemaking in the Federal Register to repeal the Biden-era methane emissions standard for oil and gas operations on or before November 11, 2026.
Posted 2026-10-28 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) publishes a formal rulemaking in the Federal Register to repeal the Biden-era methane emissions standard for oil and gas operations on or before November 11, 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Direct presidential announcement of 'termination' of the rule.
- Political incentive to lower energy costs ahead of midterm elections.
- Alignment with broader deregulatory agenda of the current administration.
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 4 times since mint (last on 2026-10-29) — 79% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The EPA publishes a Notice of Intent to Repeal or a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Federal Register with the specific docket ID EPA-HQ-OAR-2023-0355
- milestone The EPA publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Federal Register proposing to repeal the 2024 methane standards
- leading indicator The EPA publishes a Final Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) or a Federal Register notice announcing the availability of the final rule for public inspection
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.