US federal government operations remain funded on 2026-11-10.
Posted 2026-09-29 — 42 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
US federal government operations remain funded on 2026-11-10.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_shutdown (instance 2)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- precondition The Senate passes a Continuing Resolution or appropriations bill
- leading indicator The House Speaker announces a floor schedule for a funding bill
- precondition The House of Representatives passes a Continuing Resolution or appropriations bill before 2026-11-10.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.