Will the US 30-year mortgage rate stay above 7.0% for three weeks by 31 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-10 — 51 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey is a weekly report that tracks average interest rates for home loans in the United States. Mortgage rates are influenced by broader economic conditions, including inflation and central bank monetary policy.
The claim
The US 30-year fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac PMMS weekly survey) will remain above 7.0% for at least three consecutive weekly releases between 2026-09-11 and 2026-10-31.
Reasoning trace
- Oil >$100 lifts inflation expectations
- 10Y Treasury yields rise on Fed hike repricing
- Mortgage spread holds, 30Y stays above 7% multi-week
Evidence so far
15 confirming · 0 denying signals · 11 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 36 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 77% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above approximately 6.5% during the week ending 2026-09-18 observed
- precondition The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds target rate at or above 4.5% through early October 2026 observed
- milestone Freddie Mac publishes the weekly PMMS data for the week ending 2026-09-18
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.