Anthropic's IPO will not price (begin trading on a US exchange) on or before 30 November 2026.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Anthropic's IPO will not price (begin trading on a US exchange) on or before 30 November 2026.
Reasoning trace
- S-1 just filed with heavy risk-factor section (80 of 261 pages)
- SEC review and roadshow typically take 2-4 months from first filing
- Market volatility around Fed decision and Iran risk discourages early pricing
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 74% at mint → 86% today.
What to watch
- precondition Anthropic's S-1 filing is declared effective by the SEC
- leading indicator Anthropic and its underwriters publish a final prospectus (424B5) with a specific price range
- milestone Anthropic files a Form S-1/A amendment with the SEC
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.