Will Lloyd's Joint War Committee escalate Persian Gulf war-risk listings before 30 Nov 2026?

probability 83% deadline 2026-11-30 (56d left) Security

Posted 2026-10-05 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The Joint War Committee is a body at Lloyd's of London that assesses maritime security threats and designates specific geographic areas as war-risk zones. Insurance premiums and coverage terms for vessels operating in these designated waters are adjusted based on the committee's risk assessments.

The claim

Lloyd's of London Joint War Committee will add additional Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman waters to its listed-areas or publish a formal war-risk advisory escalation before 30 November 2026.

Reasoning trace

US Marines injured in Iranian strikes confirm active kinetic phase
Hormuz disruption and tanker risk persist despite normal flows
Underwriters re-price war-risk cover for Gulf transit
JWC formalizes revised listed-areas

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-05) — 75% at mint → 83% today.

What to watch

leading indicator Lloyd's of London publishes a public notice or bulletin announcing a review or revision of the Joint War Committee's Listed Areas or Special War Risk Premium Schedule
leading indicator Major marine insurers or Lloyd's syndicates publicly announce increased war-risk premiums or coverage restrictions for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman
milestone Lloyd's of London publishes a public notice or circular announcing a review of the Joint War Committee's listed areas or war-risk guidelines

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.