Will zero category 4 or stronger hurricanes make landfall in the US before 1 October 2026?
Posted 2026-08-20 — 42 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Hurricanes are tropical cyclones that form over warm ocean waters and are classified by wind speed. The Saffir-Simpson scale rates their intensity, with category 4 storms representing major hurricanes capable of causing catastrophic damage.
The claim
Zero category 4 or stronger hurricanes make landfall in the United States before 2026-10-01.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_major_hurricane (instance 1)
Evidence so far
9 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 15 times since mint (last on 2026-09-16) — 93% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a final advisory or post-storm report for any tropical cyclone making landfall on the US Gulf Coast between 2024-11-01 and 2026-10-01 that classifies the storm as Category 3 or weaker
- leading indicator The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a final advisory or post-storm report for any Atlantic Coast landfalling storm that classifies it as Category 3 or weaker
- milestone The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues its final tropical cyclone report for the last storm of the 2026 Atlantic season that affects the US before 2026-10-01, confirming its intensity at landfall was Category 2 or weaker.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.