Will the IRGC announce recovery of data from a captured US underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz by 27 November 2026?
Posted 2026-09-28 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the military wing of the Iranian government responsible for domestic security and foreign policy objectives. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil transport where tensions between Iran and the United States have historically involved naval and cyber operations.
The claim
By 2026-11-27, the IRGC publicly displays or announces the recovery of data from a captured US underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz.
Reasoning trace
- IRGC claims seizure of a US REMUS 600 drone and says it is analyzing its data.
- The US denies the claim, escalating the information warfare.
- IRGC often publicizes such captures to demonstrate capability and gain leverage.
- A public display or announcement of data recovery would be a concrete, observable event.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.