The US Department of Commerce publishes the official Federal Register notice detailing the specific compliance deadlines and transition periods for the ban on Chinese laboratory testing for electronics by 2026-11-30.
Posted 2026-10-29 — 32 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The US Department of Commerce publishes the official Federal Register notice detailing the specific compliance deadlines and transition periods for the ban on Chinese laboratory testing for electronics by 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- US announces ban on Chinese electronics testing labs
- Regulatory agencies finalize implementation details
- Final determination or effective date announced
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-29) — 82% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- milestone The US Department of Commerce publishes the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) for the ban on Chinese electronics testing laboratories in the Federal Register
- milestone The US Department of Commerce publishes a Summary of Public Comments and Responses in the Federal Register
- milestone The US Department of Commerce publishes the initial Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Federal Register proposing the ban on Chinese laboratory testing for electronics.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.