Will a major new LNG export project reach final investment decision or ship first cargo before 2026-12-30?
Posted 2026-11-04 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects require construction of liquefaction terminals to convert and ship natural gas overseas. A final investment decision is the formal approval to begin full-scale construction, while the first cargo marks the start of commercial exports. The question addresses whether any major project will meet either milestone by the given date.
The claim
A major new LNG export project reaches final investment decision or ships first cargo before 2026-12-30.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: lng_project_milestone (instance 3)
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 6 times since mint (last on 2026-11-05) — 69% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.