Will the US Senate pass a War Powers Resolution regarding Iran by 20 November 2026?
Posted 2026-09-26 — 55 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The War Powers Resolution is a United States federal law that limits the ability of the President to commit the United States to an armed conflict without the consent of the United States Congress. The US Senate is the upper chamber of the federal legislature, responsible for passing legislation and providing advice and consent on executive actions.
The claim
The US Senate passes at least one War Powers Resolution regarding Iran by 20 November 2026.
Reasoning trace
- WSJ report of planned post-midterm bombing leaks
- Democratic senators demand vote
- Resolution introduced and voted on
Evidence so far
6 confirming · 0 denying signals · 6 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-09-27) — 61% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator A US Senate Majority or Minority Leader issues a public statement or letter demanding a floor vote on a War Powers Resolution regarding Iran
- milestone A named US Senator announces the sponsorship of a War Powers Resolution regarding Iran via a press release or public statement
- precondition A War Powers Resolution regarding Iran is formally introduced in the US Senate
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.