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Will DeepSeek announce Nvidia H200 procurement or usage by 3 November 2026?

probability 79% deadline 2026-11-03 (42d left) Supply Chain

Posted 2026-08-2075 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

DeepSeek is an artificial intelligence research company that develops large language models. Nvidia H200 is a high-performance graphics processing unit designed for accelerated computing and AI workloads.

The claim

DeepSeek does not disclose a new Nvidia H200 procurement or usage announcement in its official channels within 75 days of 2026-08-20

Reasoning trace

  1. Upstream shock: H200 (z=5.5); DeepSeek exposed via 'uses' edge

Evidence so far

1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 5 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 12 times since mint (last on 2026-09-20) — 93% at mint → 79% today.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.