Will DeepSeek announce Nvidia H200 procurement or usage by 3 November 2026?
Posted 2026-08-20 — 75 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
DeepSeek is an artificial intelligence research company that develops large language models. Nvidia H200 is a high-performance graphics processing unit designed for accelerated computing and AI workloads.
The claim
DeepSeek does not disclose a new Nvidia H200 procurement or usage announcement in its official channels within 75 days of 2026-08-20
Reasoning trace
- Upstream shock: H200 (z=5.5); DeepSeek exposed via 'uses' edge
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 5 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 12 times since mint (last on 2026-09-20) — 93% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.