Will the next US BLS JOLTS report by 3 November 2026 show job openings below 7.0 million?
Posted 2026-10-09 — 25 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) to measure labor market dynamics in the United States. This forecast concerns the specific level of job openings reported in the upcoming release.
The claim
The next US BLS JOLTS release, published by 2026-11-03, reports job openings below 7.0 million.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_jolts_openings (instance 3)
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-10-10) — 59% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- milestone The BLS publishes the JOLTS data for the month ending in August 2026 observed
- precondition The BLS publishes the JOLTS news release for the September 2026 reference period on its website
- leading indicator The 'Total Job Openings' line item in the BLS news release displays a value below 7,000,000
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.