Will monthly LNG carrier transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain below 50% of the February 2026 baseline by 2026-11-28?
Posted 2026-09-29 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman that serves as a primary route for liquefied natural gas exports from the Persian Gulf. LNG carriers are specialized vessels that transport this commodity through the strait. The question addresses whether the monthly count of such transits will stay below half of a defined February 2026 reference level by the stated deadline.
The claim
By 2026-11-28, the number of LNG carriers transiting the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war levels, with monthly transits remaining below 50% of the February 2026 baseline.
Reasoning trace
- Iran effectively closed the chokepoint since February, with traffic dwindling to a trickle.
- Despite recent pickup, rerouting via Cape of Good Hope remains the norm.
- Security risks and missing contracted cargoes persist, limiting full restoration.
Evidence so far
22 confirming · 2 denying signals · 7 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 30 times since mint (last on 2026-10-17) — 70% at mint → 74% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator MarineTraffic or Kpler publishes a weekly AIS summary for the Strait of Hormuz showing daily LNG carrier transits averaging below 50% of the February 2026 daily average.
- precondition The IMO or a major shipping insurer issues a public advisory maintaining elevated war-risk premiums for the Strait of Hormuz corridor.
- precondition Official maritime traffic data (AIS aggregators, port authorities, or shipping databases) publish confirmed transit counts for October 2026, establishing the current baseline daily average of LNG carriers through the Strait of Hormuz.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.