Will a G20 central bank other than the Fed, ECB, or BoJ raise rates by 25bp by 31 December 2026 citing energy inflation?
Posted 2026-09-22 — 100 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Group of Twenty (G20) is an international forum that includes major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan. This forecast concerns monetary policy actions by other member central banks in response to inflationary pressures from energy costs.
The claim
By 31 December 2026, at least one G20 central bank other than the Fed, ECB or BoJ raises its policy rate by 25bp or more, citing renewed energy-driven inflation.
Reasoning trace
- Global rate-hike topic is regrowing sharply (+356% and +865%)
- Oil/refinery disruption chain feeding inflation across mature causal chains
- EM central banks act pre-emptively to defend currency and anchor expectations
Evidence so far
11 confirming · 0 denying signals · 17 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 26 times since mint (last on 2026-11-04) — 21% at mint → 77% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.