By October 13, 2026, the Department of Defense will release a statement or award notice confirming that Raytheon Technologies has officially secured the up-to-$20.7 billion multi-year contract for AMRAAM production.

probability 78% deadline 2026-10-13 (13d left) Other

Posted 2026-09-29 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Reasoning trace

High-value contracts typically require formal public documentation for transparency and legislative oversight.
The simultaneous release of multiple major awards suggests a coordinated procurement push or budget execution cycle.
Stock market reaction and analyst coverage indicate the awards are already being treated as finalized facts by the financial community.

Evidence so far

3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 79% at mint → 78% today.

What to watch

leading indicator The Department of Defense publishes a 'Notice of Intent to Award' or 'Intent to Award' for the AMRAAM production contract in the Federal Register
milestone The Department of Defense issues a public press release announcing the award of the AMRAAM production contract to Raytheon Technologies
precondition Raytheon Technologies and the Department of Defense sign and execute the AMRAAM production contract, with the signed agreement filed or registered in the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS) or SAM.gov contract repository

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.