Will the next US BLS PPI release published by 2026-11-14 report year-over-year producer inflation at or above 2.5 percent?
Posted 2026-10-17 — 28 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Producer Price Index each month to measure average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The year-over-year percentage change in this index serves as an official gauge of producer inflation. Releases are scheduled on fixed dates, and the one due by November 14, 2026 will contain the relevant data point.
The claim
The next US BLS PPI release, published by 2026-11-14, reports year-over-year producer inflation at or above 2.5 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_ppi_yoy (instance 4)
Evidence so far
6 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-18) — 85% at mint → 86% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The US BLS publishes the October 2026 PPI report showing a year-over-year increase in the all-items index of at least 2.5 percent
- leading indicator The US BLS publishes the September 2026 PPI report showing a year-over-year increase in the all-items index of at least 2.5 percent
- precondition The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the official Producer Price Index report for the month preceding the release date.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.