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By 2026-10-28, Apple will file a motion to stay the $5.7 billion verdict pending appeal, requesting a bond amount lower than the full judgment.

probability 81% deadline 2026-10-28 (29d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

By 2026-10-28, Apple will file a motion to stay the $5.7 billion verdict pending appeal, requesting a bond amount lower than the full judgment.

Reasoning trace

  1. Jury verdict of $5.7 billion against Apple
  2. Apple announces appeal
  3. Apple files motion to stay execution of judgment

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 83% at mint → 81% today.

What to watch

  • precondition Apple's legal team files a notice of appeal or a formal appeal petition in the relevant court docket
  • leading indicator Apple's legal team publicly announces or confirms in a press statement that they intend to seek a stay of execution with a reduced bond amount
  • precondition Apple files a notice of appeal with the court, establishing the procedural basis for seeking a stay

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.