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The Alternative for Germany (AfD) will register a polling result at or above 20% in at least one nationally recognized poll (INSA, Forsa, Allensbach, or Infratest dimap) published between September 1 and September 20, 2026.

closed deadline 2026-09-20

Posted 2026-09-01, stated before the outcome.

This prediction has left the live shortlist.

The claim

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) will register a polling result at or above 20% in at least one nationally recognized poll (INSA, Forsa, Allensbach, or Infratest dimap) published between September 1 and September 20, 2026.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

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