Will the US BEA advance GDP estimate published by 29 October 2026 show annualized growth at or above 1.0 percent?
Posted 2026-08-17 — 73 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regularly publishes advance estimates of Gross Domestic Product to measure economic activity. These reports provide a preliminary annualized growth rate that serves as a key indicator for financial markets and policymakers.
The claim
The next US BEA advance GDP estimate, published by 2026-10-29, reports annualized growth at or above 1.0 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_gdp_advance (instance 1)
Evidence so far
28 confirming · 0 denying signals · 10 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 42 times since mint (last on 2026-10-11) — 75% at mint → 73% today.
What to watch
- precondition The BEA maintains uninterrupted access to timely economic data sources from federal agencies and private providers through October 2026
- precondition No major systemic financial crisis or operational emergency forces the BEA to delay its standard release schedule in Q4 2026
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.