← All open predictions

Will Pershing Square retain its Microsoft stake without shorting or divesting by September 30, 2026?

closed deadline 2026-10-05

Posted 2026-09-22, stated before the outcome.

This prediction has left the live shortlist.

Pershing Square Capital Management is an investment firm that publishes its portfolio holdings. Microsoft Corporation is a major technology company whose stock is widely held by institutional investors.

The claim

Pershing Square will retain its roughly $2.09 billion Microsoft stake without initiating a public short position or announcing a divestment by September 30, 2026.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.