By 2026-11-28, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) will institute an investigation (proceeding) based on Netlist's September 2026 ITC complaint against Micron regarding HBM patents.
Posted 2026-09-29 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-11-28, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) will institute an investigation (proceeding) based on Netlist's September 2026 ITC complaint against Micron regarding HBM patents.
Reasoning trace
- Netlist filed a new ITC action against Micron over HBM patents on 2026-09-29.
- The ITC typically decides whether to institute an investigation within 30 days of filing.
- Given the merits of HBM patent disputes, institution is likely within the window.
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 7 times since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- milestone The ITC publishes a public notice or press release stating that it has received the complaint and is reviewing it for institution
- milestone Micron Technology files a formal response or opposition to the Netlist complaint with the ITC
- leading indicator The ITC publishes a public notice of institution for the Netlist v. Micron Section 337 proceeding on its official website or Federal Register
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.