The US Federal Reserve FOMC, at its meeting concluding on or before 2026-11-15, cites energy or oil prices as a factor in its policy statement or minutes.
Posted 2026-10-11 — 35 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The US Federal Reserve FOMC, at its meeting concluding on or before 2026-11-15, cites energy or oil prices as a factor in its policy statement or minutes.
Reasoning trace
- assumption confirmed on FOMC-oil linkage + energy↔market coupling r=0.87 + Hormuz gas-price spike confirmed + regulation concretizing coupled to finance
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-11) — 72% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator US energy or oil prices exhibit a significant spike or sustained volatility in the weeks preceding the FOMC meeting observed
- leading indicator The FOMC publishes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or minutes for the meeting concluding on or before 2026-11-15 that explicitly mentions energy or oil prices as a factor in the inflation outlook.
- precondition US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows a sustained spike in crude oil or natural gas prices prior to the FOMC meeting date.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.