Will the UK ONS report year-over-year CPI inflation at or above 3.0% by 19 December 2026?
Posted 2026-11-02 — 47 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK's official statistical agency responsible for measuring economic indicators. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data tracks the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, serving as a primary gauge of inflation.
The claim
The November 2026 UK ONS CPI release, published by 2026-12-19, reports year-over-year inflation at or above 3.0 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: uk_cpi (instance 4)
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-11-03) — 71% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.