Will the IMF or World Bank cite a Middle East oil supply shock when revising its 2026 GDP forecast in the October 2026 WEO?
Posted 2026-09-14, stated before the outcome.
The International Monetary Fund publishes the World Economic Outlook twice yearly with projections for global GDP growth. The World Bank also produces periodic economic assessments that include growth forecasts. Such publications are monitored because revisions can reflect updated assumptions about external factors including energy markets.
The claim
The IMF or World Bank will publish a downward revision to its 2026 global GDP growth forecast in its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, explicitly citing Middle East / oil supply shock.
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