At least one major aviation regulator (FAA, EASA, or GCAA) issues a new security directive or advisory addressing cockpit access, crew screening, or insider threat following the FlyDubai cockpit attack by 2026-11-30.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 61 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
At least one major aviation regulator (FAA, EASA, or GCAA) issues a new security directive or advisory addressing cockpit access, crew screening, or insider threat following the FlyDubai cockpit attack by 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- FlyDubai cockpit attack triggers investigation
- Investigators identify procedural or screening gaps
- Regulator issues security directive or advisory
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- milestone The FAA publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) or initiates a rulemaking docket on the Federal Register addressing cockpit security or crew screening
- leading indicator The FAA issues a public statement or press release acknowledging the FlyDubai incident and announcing a review of cockpit security protocols
- leading indicator EASA publishes a public statement or press release acknowledging the FlyDubai cockpit attack and announcing an internal review of cockpit security standards
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.