Will OFAC sanction Iranian oil or IRGC shipping entities by 31 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-08 — 53 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is a US Treasury bureau that administers economic sanctions. It regularly designates entities involved in prohibited trade, including Iranian energy exports and military-linked shipping.
The claim
The US Treasury OFAC issues at least one new sanctions designation targeting entities facilitating Iranian oil exports or IRGC-linked shipping between 2026-09-09 and 2026-10-31.
Reasoning trace
- US strikes Iranian tankers and sanctions airlines
- administration escalates economic pressure track
- OFAC identifies new shipping/finance intermediaries
- designation is published on Treasury site
Evidence so far
10 confirming · 0 denying signals · 9 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 26 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 78% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The US Department of the Treasury publishes an official press release announcing the initiation of sanctions against Iranian energy sector entities observed
- leading indicator The US Treasury OFAC publishes a press release or official announcement identifying specific entities for designation under the Iranian Sanctions program observed
- leading indicator The US Department of the Treasury publishes a press release or official announcement confirming the issuance of new sanctions designations against Iranian oil/shipping entities observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.