Will a blockchain analysis firm report North Korean hackers responsible for at least 50% of annual crypto theft losses by 2026-11-13?
Posted 2026-05-13 — 184 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Blockchain analysis firms monitor cryptocurrency transactions and publish attributions of thefts to specific actors. Groups linked to North Korea have been identified in multiple reports as participants in such incidents. The question addresses whether these actors will be cited as responsible for half or more of yearly losses by the given date.
The claim
Within the next 6 months, a blockchain analysis firm reports North Korean hackers responsible for at least 50% of annual crypto theft losses
Reasoning trace
- CertiK report attributing 60% of 2025 crypto losses ($2.1B) to North Korean hackers
- Continued high-profile crypto hacks and heists in topic signals
- Trend of state-sponsored crypto thefts amid growing prosecutions
Evidence so far
43 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 42 times since mint (last on 2026-10-31) — 6% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.