Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a bilateral meeting with Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. by 2026-12-01.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a bilateral meeting with Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. by 2026-12-01.
Reasoning trace
- The US is threatening new tariffs on Brazilian exports, prompting Lula to seek direct talks.
- Lula has already announced plans to travel to Washington to discuss tariffs with Trump.
- Brazil's election cycle (first round on Oct 4, possible runoff on Oct 25) sets the earliest post-election window for the trip.
- A face-to-face meeting in Washington is held before Dec 1.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 73% at mint → 84% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.