The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee votes to hold the base interest rate steady at its September 2026 meeting scheduled for early October 2026.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee votes to hold the base interest rate steady at its September 2026 meeting scheduled for early October 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Inflation is sticky due to soaring energy prices and Middle East shocks, making a rate cut premature
- The BoE is focused on financial stability risks (AI valuations) rather than immediate growth support
- Governor Bailey describes the situation as the 'most difficult combination', suggesting a cautious pause to assess data
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 83% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- milestone The Bank of England publishes the Monetary Policy Report confirming the base rate was held at 3.75% at the September 2026 meeting
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.