Will BitMine hold 5.0% of Ethereum's total supply by 19 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-20 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
BitMine Immersion Technologies is a company that has publicly stated a goal to accumulate a specific percentage of the total supply of the Ethereum cryptocurrency. This forecast tracks whether the company will achieve that stated accumulation target by the specified date.
The claim
Ethereum's total supply held by BitMine Immersion Technologies reaches 5.0% (BitMine's publicly stated 'Alchemy of 5%' goal), as announced by BitMine, by 2026-12-19.
Reasoning trace
- BitMine, led by Tom Lee, has accumulated 6.04 million ETH, about 99% of the way to its 5%-of-supply target as of 2026-10-19.
- BitMine continues buying during the market selloff, framing it as an attractive entry point.
- The remaining roughly 1% gap is closed by further purchases over the following weeks.
- BitMine publicly confirms that its Ethereum holdings have reached the 5% goal.
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 6 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 4 times since mint (last on 2026-10-21) — 65% at mint → 80% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.