Will the FAA publish a final rule on single-pilot Cessna exemptions by 26 November 2026?
Posted 2026-09-27 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Federal Aviation Administration regulates aircraft operations in the United States, including crew requirements for specific aircraft types. This forecast concerns the publication of regulatory guidance regarding the transition of exemption holders from single-pilot to two-pilot operations in Cessna aircraft.
The claim
By 2026-11-26, the FAA will publish a final rule or official guidance document specifying the exact compliance timeline and transition requirements for current exemption holders to cease single-pilot operations in two-pilot Cessna aircraft.
Reasoning trace
- FAA announces rescission of single-pilot training exemptions for certain Cessna aircraft.
- FAA executes the notice to current holders and revokes the exemptions by specific action.
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 80% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- precondition The FAA publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Federal Register regarding the rescission of single-pilot training exemptions for Cessna aircraft
- milestone The FAA publishes a document in the Federal Register closing the public comment period for the proposed rescission of single-pilot training exemptions
- milestone The FAA publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) or Request for Information (RFI) in the Federal Register soliciting public comment on the rescission of single-pilot training exemptions for Cessna aircraft.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.