By 2026-10-28, Hungarian prosecutors will formally indict Prime Minister Péter Magyar on theft charges stemming from the 2024 nightclub altercation.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-28, Hungarian prosecutors will formally indict Prime Minister Péter Magyar on theft charges stemming from the 2024 nightclub altercation.
Reasoning trace
- Hungarian parliament strips PM Magyar's immunity
- Prosecutors have requested this to pursue the theft case
- Prosecutors formally indict Magyar on theft charges
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The Hungarian National Assembly publishes a formal agenda item or motion to vote on the lifting of Prime Minister Péter Magyar's parliamentary immunity.
- leading indicator Hungarian prosecutors publicly file a formal request with the National Assembly to lift Prime Minister Péter Magyar's immunity for the theft case.
- precondition The Hungarian Parliament passes a resolution stripping Prime Minister Péter Magyar of his parliamentary immunity.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.