SpaceX will announce a target launch date for Flight 15, which will include an attempt to land the Super Heavy booster on the launch tower, on or before 2026-10-28.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
SpaceX will announce a target launch date for Flight 15, which will include an attempt to land the Super Heavy booster on the launch tower, on or before 2026-10-28.
Reasoning trace
- Super Heavy-Starship reaches orbit and deploys Starlink V3 satellites
- SpaceX engineers review flight data and prepare for the next test objective (booster catch)
- SpaceX announces a target date for Flight 15
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 87% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition SpaceX publishes a public statement confirming the successful completion of the previous Starship test flight and the deployment of Starlink V3 satellites observed
- leading indicator SpaceX publishes a mission description or technical update for Flight 15 explicitly mentioning 'booster catch,' 'tower landing,' or 'Mechazilla capture' contradicted
- milestone SpaceX announces the specific test objectives for Flight 15, including the attempt to catch the Super Heavy booster on the launch tower
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.