Will Moonshot AI publicly release its Kimi K3 LLM by 2026-12-24?
Posted 2026-10-25 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Moonshot AI is an artificial intelligence company that develops large language models under the Kimi brand. Kimi K3 refers to a specific model in the company's product line. The question addresses whether this model will be made publicly available by the given deadline.
The claim
Moonshot AI will publicly release its Kimi K3 large language model (LLM) by 2026-12-24.
Reasoning trace
- Parallel: Moonshot AI's Kimi K2 release (July 2025), sim=9
- Kimi K2 was released as an open-weight LLM within months of being announced, and relation data shows Kimi K3 is already in active development.
- Moonshot AI has a demonstrated cadence of shipping new Kimi models, so a release by the end of 2026 is the natural next step.
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-10-26) — 65% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.