The UK Competition and Markets Authority announces a final decision clearing Macquarie's acquisition of EAG on or before 9 November 2026.
Posted 2026-10-10 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The UK Competition and Markets Authority announces a final decision clearing Macquarie's acquisition of EAG on or before 9 November 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Macquarie submitted remedies to address CMA concerns over its EAG acquisition
- The CMA consults on the remedies and assesses their sufficiency
- The CMA announces clearance of the acquisition
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-10) — 67% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The CMA publishes a final remedies assessment or consultation response confirming that Macquarie's proposed remedies for the EAG acquisition are sufficient to address the identified competition concerns
- leading indicator Macquarie and EAG publicly confirm the implementation or acceptance of the final remedies package required by the CMA
- milestone The CMA publishes a draft decision or consultation document on the remedies for Macquarie's acquisition of EAG
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.