Will the US Treasury or State Department announce new Iran-related sanctions before 15 November 2026?

probability 78% deadline 2026-11-15 (48d left) Geopolitics

Posted 2026-09-28 — 48 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The United States Treasury and State Department administer economic sanctions programs targeting Iran to restrict its access to global financial systems and energy markets. These designations typically involve adding entities to the Specially Designated Nationals list or imposing secondary penalties on foreign buyers and shipping networks.

The claim

The US Treasury or State Department announces at least one new round of Iran-related sanctions (SDN designations, secondary sanctions on shipping/refiners, or oil-buyer sanctions) before 2026-11-15.

Reasoning trace

Bessent telegraphs 2-week window
Iran refuses to back down on Hormuz proposal
US needs non-military escalation lever pre-midterms
Treasury issues new SDN designations targeting Iran oil buyers or shadow fleet

Evidence so far

2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 78% at mint → 78% today.

What to watch

leading indicator The US Treasury or State Department issues a public statement or press release announcing the intent to impose new Iran-related sanctions
milestone A new entry appears in the Federal Register or on the OFAC SDN List website specifically targeting an Iranian oil or shipping entity
precondition The US Treasury publishes a Federal Register notice or OFAC advisory listing specific shipping or refining entities as subject to secondary sanctions for dealings with Iran.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.