Will the IRGC conduct a new military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz by 27 November 2026?
Posted 2026-09-28 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a branch of the Iranian military responsible for domestic security and foreign policy. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil transport, making it a frequent site for regional military activities.
The claim
By 2026-11-27, the IRGC announces or conducts a new military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf.
Reasoning trace
- Tensions with the US are high, with recent seizures and threats of 'doomsday' war.
- IRGC routinely conducts exercises to signal readiness and project power.
- The critical and decisive stage rhetoric suggests increased military posturing.
- A new exercise would be announced via official IRGC or Iranian media, making it observable.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.