Will the ITC institute a Section 337 investigation naming TSMC by 14 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-15 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The U.S. International Trade Commission administers Section 337 investigations to address unfair trade practices in U.S. commerce. Longitude Licensing and Marlin Semiconductor are entities involved in intellectual property disputes within the semiconductor sector.
The claim
The U.S. International Trade Commission will issue a notice instituting a Section 337 investigation based on the Longitude Licensing and Marlin Semiconductor complaint and naming TSMC as a respondent by 2026-11-14.
Reasoning trace
- Longitude Licensing and Marlin Semiconductor filed a patent infringement complaint targeting TSMC imports
- The ITC's statutory 30-day review determines whether the complaint states a Section 337 violation
- The ITC publishes a notice instituting a formal investigation naming TSMC
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 8 times since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 54% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The ITC publishes a notice of investigation in the Federal Register or on its public website for the Longitude Licensing and Marlin Semiconductor complaint
- milestone TSMC or its counsel files a response or motion regarding the complaint in the ITC case docket
- precondition The ITC publishes a notice of institution for the Section 337 investigation filed by Longitude Licensing and Marlin Semiconductor
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.