Will the PBoC leave the one-year loan prime rate unchanged at the 2026-11-20 monthly fixing?
Posted 2026-10-26 — 25 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is the central bank of the People's Republic of China. It determines the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) through a monthly fixing process that serves as a benchmark for lending rates. Market participants track these announcements as part of routine monetary policy observation.
The claim
The PBoC leaves the one-year loan prime rate unchanged at the 2026-11-20 monthly fixing.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: pboc_lpr (instance 4)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-10-27) — 84% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- precondition The People's Bank of China conducts its monthly Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) auction in October 2026 and/or November 2026. observed
- milestone The PBoC publishes the LPR decision notice on its official website on November 20, 2026
- leading indicator The interest rate assigned in the October 2026 MLF auction matches the rate from the September 2026 cycle.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.