Houthi forces conduct at least one confirmed strike on shipping or infrastructure in or near the Bab al-Mandab strait before 2026-11-15
Posted 2026-09-29 — 47 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Houthi forces conduct at least one confirmed strike on shipping or infrastructure in or near the Bab al-Mandab strait before 2026-11-15
Reasoning trace
- Iran signals regional oil-safety threats via IRGC
- Houthis advance toward Bab al-Mandab positions
- Attack is executed on shipping or coastal target
- Strike is publicly reported and attributed
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The Houthi military media or Yemeni government issues a statement claiming an attack on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandab strait
- leading indicator Lloyd's List or a major maritime insurance publication reports on updated war risk premiums for the Bab al-Mandab region
- milestone A major underwriter (e.g., Lloyd's of London syndicates) issues a public notice or circular regarding increased war risk in the Bab al-Mandab strait
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.