Will Anna Korwin-Piotrowska be elected acting president of Poland's Constitutional Tribunal by 30 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-31 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Constitutional Tribunal of Poland is the highest court for constitutional matters in the country. Its internal leadership is determined by the General Assembly of its judges, which may appoint an acting president to manage the institution's affairs.
The claim
By 2026-12-30, the General Assembly of Poland's Constitutional Tribunal formally elects Anna Korwin-Piotrowska as acting president of the Tribunal.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: in comparable court takeovers, the faction that suspends the old leadership formalizes its new leader within two months ≈ 60%
- Anna is the judge who announced the suspensions and is described as claiming leadership of the Tribunal; the government-appointed judges act as a group and need a formal leader to conduct business.
- The formal election is uncertain because the Tribunal's building is contested and President Nawrocki refuses to accept the new judges' oaths, lowering the probability from the base rate.
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-11-01) — 57% at mint → 78% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.