Will US Treasury OFAC publish a new Iran-related sanctions designation or advisory by 15 December 2026?
Posted 2026-09-29 — 77 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is a bureau of the US Department of the Treasury responsible for administering and enforcing economic and trade sanctions. It regularly updates its lists and advisories to target individuals, entities, and activities deemed to threaten US national security interests, including those related to Iran.
The claim
The US Treasury OFAC will publish a new Iran-related sanctions designation or advisory.
Reasoning trace
- US-Iran escalation confirmed in what_changed + evidence_gap closing on (OFAC updates) + finance↔regulation coupling (r=0.90)
Evidence so far
21 confirming · 0 denying signals · 9 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 18 times since mint (last on 2026-10-15) — 78% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator US Treasury OFAC publishes a Federal Register notice or website release announcing a new Iran-related sanctions designation or advisory. observed
- leading indicator The US Treasury Department issues a public press release announcing a new Iran-related sanctions enforcement action or advisory. observed
- milestone The Federal Register publishes a notice regarding new Iran-related sanctions regulations or guidance.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.