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Will the United States and China sign a formal agreement extending the rare earths export ban truce by November 10, 2026?

closed deadline 2026-11-10

Posted 2026-09-19, stated before the outcome.

This prediction has left the live shortlist.

The United States and China are the world's two largest economies and major participants in global trade of critical minerals. Rare earth elements are essential inputs for electronics, renewable energy systems, and defense equipment. Temporary truces on export restrictions have been negotiated between the two countries in the past, with formal extensions requiring mutual agreement by a set deadline.

The claim

The United States and China will not sign a formal agreement extending the rare earths export ban truce by November 10, 2026.

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