Will IEA or EIA cite Hormuz disruption reducing Q3 2026 oil throughput by 15 Nov 2026?
Posted 2026-08-25 — 82 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration are primary sources for global energy data. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for oil transport, and disruptions there can significantly impact global supply metrics.
The claim
The IEA or EIA publishes a report or statement citing Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption as materially reducing Q3 2026 global oil throughput by 2026-11-15.
Reasoning trace
- Hormuz traffic remains depressed for 6+ months
- Gulf export data confirms structural shortfall
- IEA/EIA monthly reports incorporate Q3 data
- Formal downward revision or warning published
Evidence so far
60 confirming · 4 denying signals · 9 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 59 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 81% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Tanker tracking data or official port authority figures show sustained reduction in vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz compared to pre-disruption baseline observed
- milestone Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, or Kuwait publish their official Q3 2026 monthly oil export statistics (e.g., via ministry websites or statistical agencies) observed
- leading indicator The reported Q3 2026 seaborne crude export volumes for the named countries fall significantly below the 5-year average or pre-disruption baseline observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.