Will Russia's CEC certify A Just Russia got no Duma seats by 28 Sep 2026?
Posted 2026-09-21 — 7 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Central Election Commission of Russia is the state body responsible for overseeing federal elections and certifying final results. The State Duma is the lower house of the Russian parliament, where seats are allocated to political parties based on their performance in party-list voting.
The claim
The Central Election Commission of Russia will officially certify the results of the 9th State Duma election, confirming that A Just Russia received no seats via the party-list allocation, by 2026-09-28.
Reasoning trace
- A Just Russia's vote share on party lists fell below the mandatory 5% threshold for parliamentary entry.
- The Central Election Commission finalized the seat allocation based on parties meeting the threshold.
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-09-22) — 78% at mint → 81% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.