Will the University of Michigan consumer sentiment final release by 24 October 2026 be below 60?
Posted 2026-09-27 — 27 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is a monthly economic indicator that measures American households' confidence in the economy. The final release provides an updated assessment of consumer expectations and current conditions following the initial preliminary estimate.
The claim
The next University of Michigan consumer sentiment final release, published by 2026-10-24, prints below 60.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_michigan_sentiment (instance 3)
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 78% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- milestone The University of Michigan publishes the preliminary September 2026 consumer sentiment index value observed
- leading indicator The University of Michigan publishes the preliminary September 2026 consumer sentiment index value below 60.0 observed
- precondition The University of Michigan publishes the preliminary September 2026 consumer sentiment index with a specific numerical value observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.