Zero new frontier AI model releases are announced by OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic before 2026-11-20.
Posted 2026-10-09 — 42 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Zero new frontier AI model releases are announced by OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic before 2026-11-20.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: frontier_model_release (instance 22)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 72% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator OpenAI publishes a new model card, release announcement, or API documentation for a flagship frontier model (e.g., GPT-5.x successor) on its official blog or platform
- leading indicator Google DeepMind publishes a technical report or whitepaper describing a new frontier model architecture or capabilities on its official blog
- leading indicator Google announces a new AI product launch event or developer conference date in Q4 2026
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.