Will Karol Nawrocki swear in all three new Constitutional Tribunal judges by 30 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-31 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Karol Nawrocki is the President of Poland, who holds the constitutional authority to formally appoint and swear in judges to the Constitutional Tribunal. The Sejm is the lower house of the Polish parliament, responsible for electing these judicial candidates.
The claim
Karol Nawrocki does not swear in any of the three new Constitutional Tribunal judges elected by the current Sejm by 2026-12-30.
Reasoning trace
- Nawrocki has already refused to swear in the three judges, triggering the court crisis.
- He accuses the government of a power grab over the Tribunal.
- His political base and PiS allies back his refusal.
- Without a political settlement, he maintains the refusal through the window.
Evidence so far
11 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-11-01) — 68% at mint → 80% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.