Will the next US BLS core CPI month-over-month be at or above 0.3 percent in the release by 2026-11-13?
Posted 2026-10-17 — 27 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly Consumer Price Index data that includes a core measure excluding food and energy prices. These releases serve as official benchmarks for tracking price changes in the United States. The claim specifies a numerical threshold and publication deadline that can be checked against the official report.
The claim
The next US BLS CPI release, published by 2026-11-13, reports core CPI month-over-month at or above 0.3 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_core_cpi_mom (instance 4)
Evidence so far
19 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-18) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index report for August 2026 observed
- precondition The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index report for September 2026 on its official website observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.