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Will Iran or the IRGC attack US forces or Gulf allies by 30 September 2026?

closed deadline 2026-09-30

Posted 2026-09-01, stated before the outcome.

Resolved: realized on 2026-09-01. Every resolution is audited for genuine foresight vs echo.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the military wing of the Islamic Republic of Iran, responsible for domestic security and foreign operations. Tensions between Iran and the United States often involve disputes over regional influence, nuclear capabilities, and maritime security in the Persian Gulf.

The claim

Iran or the IRGC conducts at least one further kinetic action (missile, drone, or naval attack) targeting US forces, US-flagged vessels, or Gulf allies on or before 2026-09-30.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.